Prediction: Rise Of Skywalker Will Do Less Than SOLO at the Box Office



An anonymous commentor recently posted the following comment on my blog:


The only irony I see is that you block people because you can’t accept being wrong when we tell you are, hence why you try to twist certain realities to for yours.

So, let me give you one to drill in your thick, tiny-brained skull.

The Rise Of Skywalker will make $1 billion. It will be considered a success, because big $200-$300M blockbusters are considered successful if they make a billion. And, when it does, you’ll soon see you and your cult’s attempts to kill it were irrelevant. You know why? Because you’re in a minority of white men who are cruel, are virgins with hard dicks that masturbate and jerk off to being negative on their stupid phones and also need to get jobs and make money instead of sticking as poor people, like YOU.


Most of my readers have read many comments like this before.  Many of my readers will remember reading comments like this before the theatrical release of Solo.


I’m going to predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo.  Here’s why.


Celebrating the Last Jedi’s Box Office Slide


The Last Jedi’s Box Office Slide

Rian Johnson fans like to tout The Last Jedi’s $1.3 Billion earnings as a great success.  But to do that you have to willfully ignore other facts. First, The Last Jedi saw a 77% drop off from TFA in its first Friday to Friday comparison.  By the second week, TLJ was running 100 Million behind TFA.  In the third week, it dropped to 3rd place, behind the 4th sequel in a low budget horror franchise.  In fact as of this writing, thanks to The Last Jedi, the Star Wars franchise now holds the record for the biggest sequel to sequel plunge in cinema history.  At one point, The Last Jedi has fell $200 Million short of analysts’ forecasts.


All of this clearly indicated that although the first weekend did phenomenally well at the box office, people were not returning for repeat viewings as is typically the tradition for Star Wars films.  This portended what was to come with Solo at the box office.


Poor Box Office Ranking

According to by the 18th week, The Last Jedi dropped to 71st place in its ranking, having brought in a measly $5800. That kind of drop off is certainly a first for a Star Wars film, especially for a Star Wars film in the primary episodic saga.


According to ultimatemovierankings.comThe Last Jedi ranks far lower than the much-maligned Episode I.


Public Misbehavior of Lucasfilm Representatives

This cannot be discounted.  Any business that openly and publicly insults its customers is going to suffer financially.  It’s just common sense.  All of the boys who grew up with Star Wars 40 years ago, and who stood by the franchise through thick and thin throughout the decades, are now fathers with their own children.  Why on Earth would these fathers want to expose their children, boy or girl, to an openly misandrous franchise that excludes boys and villainizes men?  They wouldn’t.


Solo’s Box Office Failure

Solo was an unmitigated disaster at the box office.



Box office predictions for Solo’s opening weekend started at $170 Million, then fell to $150 Million, then $138 Million, then $120 Million, then $115 Million, then $105 Million, then $100 Million, and would ultimately earn roughly $103 Million over the four day holiday weekend.  This is when the phrase “Star Wars fatigue” was invented.


But thinking people understood what was happening here.   After seeing The Force Awakens, fans were happy and returned for more on the opening weekend of The Last Jedi.  But fans were not happy with what they saw on the opening weekend for The Last Jedi, and did not return for repeat viewings in subsequent weekends, and did not return for the next installment in the franchise.  It’s that simple.


So the question then becomes, will the few who saw Solo and liked it, return for Episode IX?


Hoodwinked By Glowing Reviews

Many in the public felt taken advantage of by glowing reviews that were clearly given from a politically-biased point of view, rather than being based on film craft alone.  I’ve compared the reviews from the same critics between The Last Jedi and Solo.  I suspect that the average moviegoer is getting wise to this tactic, and will, therefore, be ignoring the inevitable glowing reviews for Episode IX.


Falling Toy And Merchandise Sales

One of the primary canaries in the coal mine was the diminishing toy and merchandise sales, which may or may not have lead to the closing of the Toys R Us toy stores.  World Class Bullshitters was the first to identify that problem and you can watch many of their videos on the topic here, along with a collection links to relevant blog posts on the matter.


Blu-Ray And DVD Sales

The Last Jedi only sold roughly 43% of The Force Awakens. Not even half.

When it came to Blu-Rays, The Last Jedi only sold marginally more than Rogue One and Solo, and roughly 45% of The Force Awakens. Again, that’s not even half.


Canceled Shows

Star Wars: Resistance was canceled after only airing one season, due to poor performance in the ratings.


Falling Comic Book Sales

Star Wars comic book sales have been reported to be dropping according to


The Galaxy’s Edge Ghost Town

Numerous articles written by multiple outlets have been reporting on the barren empty nature of the Galaxy’s Edge theme parks.  There just isn’t much interest.



Lackluster Trailer

The trailer for Episode IX was awfully boring.



Lack Of Interest

Many data sets point to apathy rising in the general audience.


Mandalorian Premiere on November 12th

Episode IX is being released on December 20th.  That’s a little more than a month after The Mandalorian’s release date.  As I wrote about previously, there are signs indicating that the character could be a Chuck Wendig creation, and it’s already showing signs that political lectures are on the way.  It’s only a matter of time before Pedro Pascal goes on a public Twitter rant.  If that’s the case, then The Mandalorian’s premiere being so close to the release date of Episode IX will have a compounding “get woke go broke” effect before the feature film is even released.


So from my perspective, all of these coal mine canaries are portending massive box office disaster for Episode IX.  And that’s why I predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo


But who knows? I’ll probably be wrong.




Originally published here.

Itchy Bacca

Itchy Bacca

Father of the Wookiee named Chewbacca, who lives with my wife in the city of Rwookrrorro on the planet Kashyyyk. Just a very old Star Wars fan since the very beginning. Check out my blog at: disneystarwarsisdumb.